Race Preview - Knockburn Standard Triathlon

Here is my race review from 2013. And here is 2012.

Last year I set some very tough targets but I did very well against them. This year I am going to set some tough targets again. The weather forecast for Sunday is not good though. 

I am swimming well, I have enough experience in the open water, I don't have to worry about sighting as I could pretty much swim the outer Knockburn lap blindfold. The water was warm this week, but then it has rained a lot since I was in on Wednesday evening and the forecast is for showers and lightning. The length of the lap changes a bit every year and the water temperature makes a huge difference so setting a precise time to hit is maybe a bit meaningless, but I am going to do it anyway and say that I want to be out of the water in under 28 minutes. 

The cycle is another tough event to set a specific time on. Previous years were 1hr 28 and 1hr 22. The weather is a massive factor again. Last year there was a bit of a wind, but the direction meant that it didn't really hurt the overall time for the bike route. It was also very dry so it was flat out effort. I am biking faster and smoother, but even a slight breeze makes a massive difference to the times. If the road surface is wet it is going to be a completely different ride so no idea what to expect. I have ridden it once this year in the rain, on my TT bike and it took nearly twice as long and still felt dangerously fast. Ideally on a good weather day I would like to get somewhere under 1hr 20.
This week I ran the course in 47 minutes. Race times have been 58 and 54 minutes the last couple of years. I really want to be under 50mins on race day. Whatever the weather does there is no reason I can't run at that speed. It is still outside 8 min/mile. Even with the hilly route I should be able to run 8 minute miles. 

Transitions tend to add up to about 3 minutes with the wet suit. So this should sum up to something like 2hrs 41. With a PB of 2hrs 48 for the Knockburn course this is a huge ask. I am going to take a bite of realism and admit that it would take a perfect weather day to get everything as quick as I want. And then another nibble by remembering that I have geared my training to doing Sprint distance events this year so a Standard race could feel like a very long way to go. So I am going to ease my overall target to 2hrs 45 overall. 

So targets:
Swim < 28
Bike < 1:20
Run< 50
Overall < 2:45